GT Rebuilt From Scratch: Gill, Buttler, Siraj, Rabada, and the IPL's Most Overhauled Roster

GT sit at Elo #3 (1519) entering IPL 2026 under the WAR-based Elo model that initializes ratings from projected squad composition rather than franchise history. Unlike the old system, this 1519 reflects the actual players on the roster, not the 2022 title or 2023 final run. That distinction matters, because most of the players who earned those historical results are gone. David Miller, Wriddhiman Saha, Mohammed Shami, Mohit Sharma, the spine of GT's championship core, departed across two auction cycles. In their place: Jos Buttler, Kagiso Rabada, Mohammed Siraj, Glenn Phillips, Jason Holder, Washington Sundar, R Sai Kishore, and Shahrukh Khan. This isn't a retool. It's a rebuild — and for the first time, the Elo rating actually measures this squad.

The Retained Core

Five names survived the overhaul:

Shubman Gill captains a squad that looks nothing like the one he inherited. Gill's 0.47 raw WAR per match (regressed: 0.42) across 165 career T20 matches reflects a technically elegant batter capable of anchoring or accelerating. His 2025 xstats, +7 SRae across 415 balls, show reliable production rather than explosive output. His role shifts with Buttler's arrival: Gill likely moves from sole anchor to co-pilot in an opening partnership that pairs classical timing with power hitting. Our 2026 projection has Gill at 0.51 WAR per match on a rising trajectory.

Sai Sudharsan anchors the middle order at #3. His 0.48 raw WAR per match (regressed: 0.37) across 49 T20 matches represents genuine upside. A +6 SRae across 486 balls in 2025 established him as a reliable run-flow maintainer through the middle phase without high-risk play. His 2026 projection of 0.46 reflects the model's confidence in his development.

Rahul Tewatia provides lower-order hitting at #7. His WAR/M of 0.11 (regressed: 0.12) across 118 matches reflects the boom-or-bust nature of his role. He absorbs 1 death bowling over alongside his finishing duties, though the model projects just 0.09 for 2026.

Prasidh Krishna posted +1 Ecae across 354 balls in 2025, accumulating 70 surplus runs saved. His 0.26 raw WAR per match (regressed: 0.28) makes him GT's best bowler by proven output, and his 2026 projection of 0.40 on a rising trajectory marks him as a cornerstone of the new pace attack. Prasidh bowls 2 powerplay overs and 2 death overs, with an elite 56% PP dot ball rate against a 46% league average.

Rashid Khan: The Overseas Squeeze

Rashid Khan remains GT's most decorated spinner. His 0.33 raw WAR per match (0.33 regressed) across 308 career T20 matches and 0.33 bowling WAR per match confirm his quality. His middle-over mastery, an elite 7 economy against the 9 league average, provides containment that few batters consistently attack.

The problem is overseas slots. GT's optimal XII selects Buttler, Banton, Phillips, and Holder as the four overseas players, pushing Rashid to the predicted XII instead. The predicted lineup slots Rashid in for Holder and Tewatia, adding Jayant Yadav. Both configurations carry trade-offs: the optimal XII maximizes total PVS at 6.26, while the predicted XII sacrifices batting depth for Rashid's elite spin. Gill's selection headache centers on whether Rashid's 0.34 projected value justifies dropping one of four overseas players who each fill distinct roles.

What They Lost

The departures strip GT of institutional memory. Miller's 6 seasons as the designated finisher defined GT's death-over strategy. Saha's wicketkeeping and PP batting provided stability. Shami, when fit, offered swing and seam at the top and bottom of innings. Mohit Sharma's death bowling absorbed pressure overs that nobody else wanted.

These weren't just players leaving. They were roles being vacated. GT must fill the finisher slot, the wicketkeeper position, the new-ball swing option, and the death specialist simultaneously. Most franchises rebuild one position at a time. GT rebuilt all four.

The Additions: Paper Strength

Jos Buttler arrives from RR with a 0.53 raw batting WAR per match (regressed: 0.49) across 324 career T20 matches, one of the highest pure batting WAR figures in the game. His 2025 IPL output, +11 SRae across 330 balls, was solid rather than spectacular, reflecting a player whose best T20 years may be behind him. His 2026 projection of 0.45 on a declining trajectory is honest about the age curve. But even a declining Buttler provides elite powerplay batting and solves the wicketkeeper vacancy.

The acquisition reshapes GT's batting structure entirely. A Gill-Buttler opening pair gives GT potentially the best top-two combination in IPL 2026: Gill's timing plus Buttler's power, two players capable of batting 10+ overs each.

Mohammed Siraj adds express pace. His 0.35 raw WAR per match (0.35 regressed) across 147 T20 matches and +1 Ecae across 342 balls in 2025 indicate a more valuable T20 bowler than Rabada by recent form. His 2026 projection of 0.44 leads the entire pace unit. Siraj's elite 46% overall dot ball rate and 39% death dot rate (against 32% league average) make him GT's primary death-over weapon.

Kagiso Rabada brings pace, bounce, and a death-over yorker that ranks among the best in world cricket. His 0.14 raw WAR per match (0.14 regressed) across 192 T20 matches is lower than his reputation suggests, and his 2026 projection of just 0.13 on a declining trajectory flags genuine concern. Rabada's pedigree is undeniable, but the model sees a bowler whose recent output hasn't matched his peak.

Glenn Phillips slots at #5 with a 0.43 batting WAR per match and 0.38 regressed overall WAR. His elite 191 SR against pace in death overs (against 159 league average) across 188 balls makes him the designated finisher in the middle order. Phillips provides destructive hitting plus part-time off-spin.

Shahrukh Khan fills the #6 slot, a power hitter whose 0.20 regressed WAR carries volatility. He thrives against pace in the middle overs (172 SR against 137 average) but struggles against spin (105 SR against 129 average). His 2026 projection of 0.24 reflects solid role-player value.

Jason Holder provides the classic all-rounder profile: 4 overs of medium-fast bowling at the top plus lower-order batting. Holder's 0.16 regressed WAR/M across 259 matches reflects modest but steady value. His 2m01 frame generates awkward bounce that complicates hitting.

Washington Sundar delivers elite middle-over spin containment. His 7 middle-over economy against 9 league average, with an elite 11% middle-over boundary rate (against 16% league average), makes him GT's most valuable spin asset by bowling role fit. His 0.27 regressed WAR across 142 matches combines off-spin with genuine batting utility.

R Sai Kishore adds left-arm orthodox. His 0.22 regressed WAR/M across 66 matches, bowling 1 PP over and 3 middle overs, provides another quality spin option alongside Sundar.

The Pace Battery

On paper, GT assembled one of the most formidable pace attacks in IPL 2026:

Bowler	WAR/M (reg)	2025 Ecae	Bowling Role
Prasidh Krishna	0.28	+1.19	New Ball (2pp+2death)
Mohammed Siraj	0.35	+0.64	Death (1pp+2death)
Kagiso Rabada	0.14	—	Pedigree pick
Jason Holder	0.16	—	New Ball (2pp+2mid)

Four pace options, each capable of bowling at the death. Most franchises identify one, maybe two, reliable death bowlers. GT have multiple candidates. The tactical advantage: Gill can match his death bowlers to specific batters, rotating based on matchups rather than defaulting to a single option.

Prasidh's proven +1 Ecae across a full season provides the reliability floor. Siraj's +1 Ecae and 37 surplus across 342 balls offers a strong second option with a higher 2026 projection. Rabada and Holder bring international pedigree but lower recent WAR numbers.

The Spin Depth

GT can deploy up to 12 overs of quality spin per match across three specialists:

Spinner	WAR/M (reg)	Bowling Role	Key Strength
Washington Sundar	0.27	Middle (4mid)	7.1 mid econ, elite containment
Sai Kishore	0.22	Middle (1pp+3mid)	14.5% mid boundary rate
Rashid Khan*	0.33	Middle (3mid)	7.3 mid econ, elite boundary suppression

*Rashid selected in predicted XII only due to overseas slot constraints.

This spin depth provides tactical flexibility most franchises lack. Whether Rashid plays depends on the venue and opponent's spin vulnerability. On spin-friendly surfaces, Gill could deploy all three Indian spinners plus Rashid by dropping an overseas batter.

The WAR-Based Rating: 1519 From Squad, Not History

The old Elo model would have ranked GT based on their franchise record — the 2022 title, 2023 final, and subsequent decline. The WAR-based model skips all of that. GT's 1519 rating is derived entirely from the projected WAR of their 2026 squad: 3.79 projected WAR per match, the third-highest in the league behind MI (4.51) and SRH (3.80).

That 3.79 figure reflects the players actually on the roster. Buttler's 0.45 projected WAR/M, Gill's 0.51, Siraj's 0.44, and Prasidh's 0.40 drive the total. The rating is honest about what GT assembled rather than what GT once were.

GT's 1519 places them in the upper tier of a compressed field. They sit just 3 points behind SRH (1522) and 134 points behind MI (1653). Against the middle pack — DC (1498), KKR (1493), RCB (1489) — GT hold a ~30-point edge, translating to roughly 55/45 matchup probabilities. The question isn't whether GT have the talent. It's whether pieces assembled from four different franchises cohere in time.

The Outlook

Talent density alone puts GT in contention. Gill (0.42), Buttler (0.49), Prasidh (0.28), Siraj (0.35), Phillips (0.38), five genuinely valuable IPL performers. Add Rashid (0.33) if the overseas math works, and GT field six players with regressed WAR above 0.28. The question isn't whether GT have the pieces. It's whether pieces assembled from four different franchises cohere in 14 league matches.

The 2022 GT squad that won the title was also a collection of parts from other franchises. They had no legacy, no chemistry, no shared history. They had Rashid Khan, a smart captain in Hardik Pandya, and role clarity. Gill inherits the captaincy at 26 with a more talented but equally unfamiliar roster.

GT's 1519 Elo says they're the third-best team in the IPL. Their roster says they might be the most talented. Their lack of cohesion says the gap between those two statements is where the season will be won or lost.