Noor Ahmad projects at 0.46 WAR per match for IPL 2026, making him the most valuable bowler on CSK's roster. His Ecae of 1.43 means he concedes 1.43 runs per over less than expected for the phases he bowls in. Among 54 qualified bowlers in IPL 2025, that figure ranked 5th.

His regressed WAR/M of 0.33 and bowling WAR/M of 0.39 confirm that virtually all his match value comes from the ball. Across 1961 career bowling balls, with an IPL confidence of 86%, the projection carries real weight.

Bowling Role and Justification

The model assigns Ahmad as a Middle-phase bowler with a workload split of 1 powerplay over, 2 middle overs, and 1 death over. His bowling role fit score of 1.66 is the highest on the CSK roster among bowlers.

Four numbers justify the assignment. His middle-overs boundary rate of 13 percent sits well below the 16 league average. His middle-overs dot ball rate of 40% exceeds the 33% league average by 7 points. His overall boundary rate of 14% is far below the 19% average. With 76% of his career balls in the middle overs, this is his primary phase and the sample is large.

The combination of low boundaries and high dots means Ahmad does not just contain. He builds pressure that creates wickets at the other end.

Phase Breakdown

Powerplay (1 over): Ahmad's new ball score of 0.93 suggests he is competent but not elite with the new ball. The single powerplay over gives the captain flexibility to use him when a left-arm wrist spinner matches up well against specific openers.

Middle Overs (2 overs): This is where Ahmad dominates. The 40% dot rate squeezes scoring, and the 13% boundary rate means batters struggle to find the fence. His middle-overs economy of 7.3 is 1.2 runs per over below the 8.5 average.

Death (1 over): His death role score of 1.28 indicates he can hold his own in overs 16 through 20. A spinner who can bowl at the death without being a liability is a genuine tactical asset.

Bowling Surplus

Ahmad's bowling surplus of 72 is the highest on CSK's roster, meaning he generates the most value above replacement level per unit of cost. That surplus reflects both the quality of his bowling and the relative scarcity of elite T20 spinners.

Overseas Slot Value

Ahmad occupies one of CSK's four overseas slots alongside Short, Brevis, and Hosein. His projected WAR/M of 0.46 is the second-highest on the roster behind Brevis. For a specialist bowler, that level of output more than justifies the overseas investment. The alternatives (Matt Henry at 0.06, Zak Foulkes at 0.09) project far lower.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Ahmad is CSK's bowling anchor. His ability to control the middle overs with elite dot rates and minimal boundaries gives the captain the luxury of building the attack around him. At Chepauk, where spin traditionally plays a significant role, his left-arm wrist spin becomes even more valuable. Opposition batters will need to find ways to rotate strike against him, because clearing the fence has proven extraordinarily difficult. With an xImpact of 53, he projects as one of CSK's three most important players.