MI vs RCB Preview: Two Heavyweights, One Coin Flip at Wankhede
Mumbai Indians have lost 2 straight. Royal Challengers Bengaluru arrive at Wankhede with 2 wins from 3 matches, fresh confidence, and a batting lineup that just posted 250/3 against Chennai Super Kings. This should be a comfortable evening for the visitors, except for one inconvenient detail: this is Wankhede Stadium under lights, and MI are desperate.
LSG vs GT Preview: Two Surging Squads Meet in a 52/48 Coin Flip
Lucknow Super Giants and Gujarat Titans arrive at Ekana on contrasting arcs that have converged to the same point. LSG have won 2 of their last 3 matches after a dismal opening night against Delhi Capitals. GT just recorded their first win of the season, dismantling DC with 210/4 in Match 14. The Elo model sees virtually nothing between them. LSG sit at 1510.6 Elo, GT at 1494.1, a gap of just 1...
CSK vs DC Retrospective: Sanju Samson's 115* Is the Highest Individual Impact of IPL 2026
Sanju Samson posted -0.8 impact against PBKS in match 7. He managed 11.0 against RCB in match 11. The criticism was mounting. CSK's most expensive acquisition had produced almost nothing in two matches, and the patience of a fanbase watching their team lose 3 straight games was wearing thin.
PBKS vs SRH Retrospective: 105/0 in the Powerplay Wasn't Enough — Priyansh Arya's Third Masterclass Broke SRH
That is the most absurd sentence of the IPL 2026 season so far. Abhishek Sharma smashed 74(28) with 8 sixes and 5 fours. Travis Head contributed 38(23) from the other end. Together they raced to 105/0 in the powerplay, a number that should have made the match a formality. SRH posted 219/6 in their 20 overs. PBKS chased it down in 18.5 overs, losing just 4 wickets.
RR vs RCB Retrospective: Sooryavanshi's 147.7 Impact and Jurel's 100.5 Made 202 Feel Easy
RCB posted 201/8 in 20 overs. On most nights, that wins you the match. On this night in Guwahati, it was not even close. Rajasthan Royals reached 202/4 in just 18 overs, winning by 6 wickets to extend their record to a perfect 4-0.
KKR vs LSG Retrospective: Mukul Choudhary's 7 Sixes in 27 Balls Stole It Off the Last Ball
KKR posted 181/4 in 20 overs. It should have been enough. Their bowlers had LSG's chase under control for most of the innings, and at the start of the final over, LSG still needed 14 runs. Then Mukul Choudhary decided that his evening was not over. The 27-ball cameo finished with 54 runs, 7 sixes, and an impact score of 84.3 that made him the most impactful player on either side by a wide margin.
DC vs GT Retrospective: Rashid Khan's 3/17 and a Last-Ball Run-Out Stole the Thriller of the Season
KL Rahul scored 92(52) and still lost. David Miller was on 41 and standing at the striker's end for the final ball. DC needed 2 off the last delivery to win. Prasidh Krishna dug in a slower bouncer. Miller missed it. Jos Buttler hit the stumps direct from behind the keeper's end with Kuldeep Yadav stranded out of his ground. GT won by 1 run. It is the closest finish of IPL 2026 and the kind of ...
RR vs MI Retrospective: Jaiswal's Unbeaten 77 Off 32 Balls Blew MI Away in 11-Over Shootout
Guwahati got 11 overs a side. Yashasvi Jaiswal got 32 balls and turned them into 77(32) that no one on the Mumbai Indians roster had an answer for. RR posted 150/3 in their 11 overs, a total that demanded perfection from MI's chase. MI managed 123/9, falling 27 runs short while losing 9 wickets. It was not close.
RCB vs CSK Retrospective: Tim David's 8 Sixes in 25 Balls Powered the Highest Total Ever Against CSK
RCB 250/3 — the highest total ever scored against CSK in IPL history — powered by Tim David's 70(25) with 8 sixes at 280 strike rate and 79.5 impact. Chinnaswamy lived up to its reputation as David destroyed CSK's death bowling. Padikkal's 50(29) and Patidar's 66.3 impact built the platform. CSK bowled out for 207, with only Sarfaraz Khan (78.7 impact, 50 off 25) fighting back. Gaikwad (11.2) and Samson (11.0) failed again. CSK fall to 0-3. The model's 62% call — our strongest non-MI prediction — was validated.
SRH vs LSG Retrospective: Pant's 68* Sealed It With 1 Ball to Spare After Shami's 2/9 Strangled Hyderabad
Our model gave SRH 57% at home. LSG won by 5 wickets with 1 ball to spare. Mohammed Shami's 2/9 posted 104.2 impact — the third-highest individual performance of IPL 2026. Klaasen (62 off 41, 78.6 impact) and Nitish Kumar Reddy (56 off 33, 88.8 impact) built a 116-run stand, but SRH collapsed from 134/4 to 156/9 in the final 3 overs. Pant's unbeaten 68*(50) redeemed his 1.2 impact from match 5, hitting Unadkat for 3 boundaries in the final over. LSG get their first win...
RCB vs CSK Preview: 88-Point Elo Gap Spells Trouble for a Team Staring at 0-3
CSK are 0-2 and heading to the most batter-friendly ground in the IPL. RCB dismantled SRH in match 1, with Kohli scoring 69*(38) at his Chinnaswamy fortress. The 88-point Elo gap gives RCB 62% win probability — our strongest non-MI prediction. CSK's batting failed in match 3, their bowling failed in match 7. Neither department has been reliable. An 0-3 start looms, and history says very few teams recover from there...
SRH vs LSG Preview: Abhishek and Head's Powerplay Explosion Meets Lucknow's Fragile Batting
SRH's opening pair went from 18(17) combined in match 1 to 94(42) in match 6 — the most dramatic turnaround of the season. At 1519.4 Elo vs LSG's 1470.1, Sunrisers are 57% favorites at home. LSG's sole match produced 141 all out despite strong bowling from Prince Yadav (64.7 impact) and Mohsin Khan (47.2). Pant's 1.2 batting impact needs urgent correction. Afternoon heat in Hyderabad and SRH's powerplay firepower make this a test of whether LSG's batting can survive...
GT vs RR Retrospective: Bishnoi's 109.7 Impact Broke GT's Chase, and Archer's Catch Sealed It
Our model gave GT 52% — a coin flip. RR won by 6 runs in a thriller at Ahmedabad. Ravi Bishnoi's 4/41 posted 109.7 impact, the highest individual bowling performance of IPL 2026, dismissing Sudharsan, Phillips, Sundar, and Tewatia to break GT's middle order. Dhruv Jurel's career-best 75(42) at 68.0 impact built RR's 210/6. Archer's catch of Rashid on the penultimate ball was the decisive moment. Rabada's 81.5 all-round impact from number 11 was remarkable. GT fall to 0-2...
DC vs MI Retrospective: Sameer Rizvi's 90 Toppled the Tournament Favourites
Our model gave MI 70% — the strongest call of the season. DC won by 6 wickets. Sameer Rizvi's 90 posted 102.3 impact, the season's highest individual score, earning back-to-back Player of the Match after his 70*(47) in match 5. DC's bowling was extraordinary again: Mukesh Kumar 74.8, Axar 47.3, Nigam 32.2, Ngidi 31.6, Natarajan 30.8 — five bowlers above 30 impact. MI's vaunted depth managed 162/6; only SKY passed 50. Biggest Elo upset of the season...
CSK vs PBKS Retrospective: Priyansh Arya's 39 Off 11 Balls Turned a Contest Into a Procession
Our model gave PBKS 52% — a coin flip. PBKS chased 210 in 18.4 overs, winning by 5 wickets. Priyansh Arya's 39(11) with 4 sixes posted 80.6 impact — the highest individual impact in IPL 2026 so far. Shreyas Iyer's 50(29) anchored the chase. CSK fall to 0-2 despite Mhatre's 73(43). Samson fails again at -0.8 impact. Chahal's 55.4 bowling impact confirms PBKS have found their spin weapon...
KKR vs SRH Retrospective: Abhishek and Head Answered Their Critics in 42 Balls
Our model gave SRH 53% — a coin flip. SRH won by 65 runs, the first team to defend a total this season. Abhishek Sharma 48(21) and Travis Head 46(21) powered 84/1 in the powerplay after combining for just 18(17) in match 1. NKR posted 60.1 total impact after scoring 1(6) against RCB. KKR fall to 0-2, bottom of the table. Narine quiet again at 14.5 total impact...
LSG vs DC Retrospective: 119 Not Out From 33 for 4 — Rizvi and Stubbs Rewrote History
Our model gave DC 52% — a coin flip. DC won by 6 wickets chasing 142 in 17.1 overs, but not before collapsing to 33/4 in the powerplay. Sameer Rizvi's 70*(47) and Tristan Stubbs's 39*(32) produced an unbroken 119* — the best 5th wicket stand in DC history. Kuldeep and Axar delivered exactly as the preview predicted on Ekana's slow surface. Pant's return to Lucknow produced a 1.2 impact score...
PBKS vs GT Retrospective: The Debutant Who Broke the Model
Our model gave GT 68% — a strong call, the second-widest Elo gap of opening week. PBKS won by 3 wickets. Cooper Connolly, an unmodelled debutant, scored 72*(44) for the match's highest impact score at 87.2. Chahal, Vyshak, and Jansen all posted 60+ impact to strangle GT to 162. First strong prediction miss...
RR vs CSK Retrospective: 15-Year-Old, 15-Ball Fifty, 47-Ball Demolition
Our model gave RR 53% — a coin flip. The match was a demolition. RR bowled CSK out for 127, then chased it in 12.1 overs with 47 balls to spare. Archer and Jadeja wrecked the top order, Burger earned the match's highest impact score, and 15-year-old Vaibhav Sooryavanshi smashed 52* off 15 balls to seal it...
RCB vs SRH Retrospective: The Model Said Coin Flip. The Opener Said Blowout.
Our model gave SRH 55/45 odds — essentially a coin flip. The reasoning behind that edge collapsed in 17 balls. Abhishek and Head combined for 18(17), Duffy took 3-22, and Padikkal's 61(26) turned a 202 chase into a 26-ball-to-spare demolition...
MI vs KKR Retrospective: 72% Favorites, Record Chase, Jinx Broken
Our model gave MI 72% — the strongest opening-week prediction. Rohit (78 off 38) and Rickelton (81 off 43) put on 148 for the opening wicket, chasing down 221 in 19.1 overs for MI's highest successful IPL chase. Shardul Thakur's 3-wicket spell earned the match's highest impact score at 100.9...
RCB vs SRH Preview: Defending Champions Open as Underdogs
RCB won the 2025 title. Our model doesn't care. SRH's squad edges RCB on projected strength, giving them a 55/45 win probability — making the defending champions narrow underdogs to open the 2026 season...
MI vs KKR Preview: The IPL's Most Lopsided Opening-Week Matchup
MI are 72% favorites — the most lopsided matchup of the opening week. Their squad has no weak spots: seven batters above league average, the IPL's best death bowling unit, and depth that no single player can overcome...
RR vs CSK Preview: Two Bottom-Half Squads Meet at the IPL's Highest-Scoring Venue
A near coin-flip: RR 53%, CSK 47%. Two evenly-matched squads meet at the IPL's highest-scoring venue — Guwahati averages 186 first innings and a 9.45 run rate. This one comes down to who handles the conditions better...
PBKS vs GT Preview: Mohali's 69% Chase Success Rate Could Decide This
GT are strong favorites at 68%. PBKS project as the weakest squad in IPL 2026, but Mohali's 69% chase success rate — the highest of any IPL venue — could be the great equalizer if PBKS win the toss...
LSG vs DC Preview: A Coin Flip — and Pant's Return to Lucknow
52/48 — as close to a coin flip as you'll see. DC hold the narrowest of edges, but the story the numbers can't capture: Rishabh Pant returns to Lucknow as LSG's captain, facing the franchise that let him go...
RCB Are the Best Team in the IPL and It's Not Even Close
RCB enter IPL 2026 as the strongest team in our power rankings — with roughly 60% head-to-head win probability against any opponent. The largest frontrunner advantage of any team heading into a new season...
Phase-Aware Positional PVS: How 7 Batting Slots and 4 Bowling Roles Build the Optimal XI
The Phase-Aware Positional PVS system assigns each player to one of 11 specific slots — 7 batting positions and 4 bowling roles — each with its own scoring formula weighted toward the phase skills that position demands. The optimizer solves for the lineup that maximizes total positional value.
RR Lost Buttler But Added Jadeja, Curran, and Bishnoi — Can Parag's New-Look Royals Climb From 8th?
RR enter IPL 2026 ranked 8th in our power rankings — below the league average on projected squad strength. Out with Buttler, Chahal, and the 2022 finalist core. In with Jadeja, Curran, and Bishnoi. Can Parag's new-look Royals climb?...
GT Rebuilt From Scratch: Gill, Buttler, Siraj, Rabada, and the IPL's Most Overhauled Roster
GT enter IPL 2026 ranked 3rd in our power rankings — reflecting the actual players on this rebuilt roster, not the 2022 title. Gill, Buttler, Siraj, Rabada — this is the most overhauled roster in the league. Does the talent add up?...
The 14-Year-Old With the Best Batting Numbers in the Entire IPL
Vaibhav Sooryavanshi finished IPL 2025 with a +59.5 strike rate above expected — the highest of any batter in the tournament. The gap between Sooryavanshi at #1 and Abhishek Sharma at #2 is enormous...
Bumrah Saved MI 133 Runs in One Season — No Other Bowler Comes Close
Jasprit Bumrah saved MI 133 runs compared to an average bowler across 284 balls in IPL 2025. His economy was 2.81 runs per over better than expected — adjusted for the phase he bowled in. No other bowler comes close...
Pooran Is the Only Batter in the IPL Who's Elite in All 3 Phases
Nicholas Pooran generated 119 runs more than an average batter would from his balls faced — the highest of any batter in IPL 2025. He scored 526 runs off 267 balls at 197 strike rate, and he did it in every phase...
Shreyas Iyer Strikes at 232 in the Death Overs — The IPL's Best Finisher
Shreyas Iyer struck at 232.1 across 78 death-phase balls in IPL 2025 — 59.7 points above the 172.4 league death average. Over a full season of 605 runs, 344 balls, 43 fours, and 39 sixes, Iyer accu...
Kuldeep Yadav Is Elite in Every Phase of the Game
Kuldeep Yadav's economy was 2.02 runs per over better than expected across 307 balls in IPL 2025 — second only to Bumrah among all qualified bowlers. His raw economy of 6.98 already looks elite. Adjusted for phase, he's dominant everywhere...
The Powerplay Has Never Been This Explosive — 9.58 Runs Per Over
The IPL's powerplay run rate reached 9.58 in 2025. In 2020, it was 7.7. That's a 24% increase across five seasons — an extraordinary rate of scoring inflation concentrated in just six overs per inn...
The Death Overs Are Getting Cheaper — For the First Time in 3 Years
Death over economy fell from 11.16 to 10.89 in IPL 2025 — the first year-over-year drop since 2021. After three consecutive seasons of rising death costs, bowlers finally clawed back 0.27 runs per ...
Why Boundaries Win Matches: The 4.9% Gap Between Winners and Losers
In IPL 2025, winning teams posted a 24.0% boundary rate. Losing teams posted 19.1%. The 4.9 percentage point gap between those numbers is the widest since boundary tracking began in 2020, and it re...
Why Raw Strike Rate Is Lying to You — and How We Fix It
A strike rate of 150 means different things in different overs. In the powerplay, where the IPL 2025 league average sits at 151.8 SR, a batter striking at 150 is -1.8 below average. In the middle o...
Ranking All 14 IPL Venues Across 6 Key Metrics — 216 Matches, 3 Seasons of Data
The IPL's 14 active venues span a 33.0-run range in average innings totals — from Mullanpur's 159.2 to Visakhapatnam's 193.6. Every ground has a statistical fingerprint that shapes team strategy, s...
Delhi's 201.5 First-Innings Average Makes Arun Jaitley the IPL's Most Extreme Batting Ground
The Arun Jaitley Stadium in Delhi posted a first-innings average of 201.5 across 19 matches from IPL 2023-2025. The league average is 187.9. That 13.6-run surplus makes Delhi the IPL's highest-scor...
Chepauk's 161.0 Average Is 19.1 Runs Below the IPL Mean — The Spin Tax Is Real
MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai averaged 161.0 runs per innings across 24 matches from 2023-2025. The league average is 180.1. That 19.1-run deficit is the largest negative venue effect in the IP...
Eden Gardens Has Produced 18 Innings Above 200 in 3 Seasons — More Than Any IPL Venue
Eden Gardens in Kolkata produced 18 innings crossing 200 across 21 matches from IPL 2023-2025. That's 42.9% of all innings — nearly one in every two innings reaches the 200-run mark. No other majo...
Chinnaswamy's 8.6% Six Rate Is the Highest in the IPL — Bengaluru's Elevation Advantage
The M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru has the highest six rate of any major IPL venue: 8.6% of all legal deliveries are hit for six. At 920 meters above sea level, Bengaluru's altitude thins the a...
Wankhede's 57% Chase Success Rate Makes Mumbai the IPL's Most Dew-Driven Venue
The Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai has a chase success rate of 57% across 21 matches from IPL 2023-2025. Teams batting first win only 43% of the time. In a league where captains increasingly prefer to ...
Hyderabad's 14.6% Four Rate Leads the IPL — The Ground Where Timing Beats Power
The Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium in Hyderabad has the highest four rate of any IPL venue: 14.6% of all legal deliveries produce a four. The league average sits around 13%. Hyderabad is a timi...
Mullanpur's 14.3 Wickets Per Match Makes It the IPL's Bowler-Friendliest Ground
The Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium in Mullanpur produced 14.3 wickets per match across 10 IPL matches from 2023-2025. That 2.0-wicket surplus per match makes Mullanpur the ...
Ahmedabad's 9.32 Middle-Overs Run Rate Defies the IPL's Scoring Pattern
The Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad averages 9.32 RPO in the middle overs, the highest of any IPL venue. This is the only major venue where the middle-overs run rate exceeds the powerplay rate...
Lucknow's Ekana Stadium Averages 171.9 — 8.2 Runs Below League Average With a 57% Chase Win Rate
The Ekana Cricket Stadium in Lucknow averages 171.9 runs per innings across 21 matches from 2023-2025. That places it 8.2 runs below the league mean — not as extreme as Chepauk or Mullanpur, but m...
Jaipur's 10.1 Wickets Per Match Is the IPL's Lowest — Sawai Mansingh's Flat-Track Paradox
The Sawai Mansingh Stadium in Jaipur produces just 10.1 wickets per match across 17 IPL matches from 2023-2025. That's 2.2 fewer wickets per match than the league average — yet Jaipur's average to...
231 SR Under Pressure: Abhishek Sharma Leads IPL 2025's Clutch Performers
We built a pressure index scoring every ball 0-100 using win probability, phase, wickets, and chase context. 41.8% of IPL 2025 deliveries were high-pressure. Abhishek Sharma led all batters with 231.2 SR under pressure — 36 points above his overall rate. Kuldeep Yadav was the best pressure bowler: 6.71 economy across 194 high-pressure balls with 11 wickets.
Shreyas Iyer Added 188% Win Probability in IPL 2025 — More Than Any Other Batter
Win Probability Added measures the actual match impact of every delivery. Shreyas Iyer leads all batters at +187.7% — 38.8 points clear of Suryakumar Yadav. Arshdeep Singh leads bowlers at +195.6%. Meanwhile Jaiswal's -132.8% despite a 162 strike rate proves that when you score matters as much as how much.
MI's Optimal 11: The Rohit-SKY-Bumrah Core That No Squad Can Match
MI's Optimal XI ranks tied third in the league for squad strength — with Will Jacks a perfect fit at lower-order all-rounder. Nine of eleven players overlap between the optimal and predicted lineups, the tightest gap of any franchise...
RCB's Optimal 11: Salt and Kohli Open, Hazlewood-Bhuvi Lock Down the Powerplay
RCB's Optimal XI ranks seventh for squad strength — with Romario Shepherd a perfect fit at finisher and Suyash Sharma anchoring the powerplay bowling. The predicted lineup drops in strength because the franchise will open with Kohli over the model's preference...
SRH's Optimal 11: Abhishek Sharma Leads the League's Most Explosive Opening Pair
SRH's Optimal XI ranks fifth for squad strength — with Abhishek Sharma a perfect fit as opener and Unadkat anchoring the lower-order all-rounder slot. Three lineup swaps between the optimal and predicted XI drive the gap...
KKR's Optimal 11: Narine's Dual Threat and the Finn Allen Wildcard
KKR's Optimal XI ranks second for squad strength — anchored by Sunil Narine as the perfect middle-overs bowler and Finn Allen's explosive opening. The predicted lineup drops significantly because the franchise will likely select Raghuvanshi over the model's pick...
GT's Optimal 11: Rashid Khan Returns to the XI That Needs Him Most
GT's Optimal XI ranks eighth for squad strength — with Glenn Phillips and Rashid Khan forming a spin-bowling axis that generates elite value at both middle order and middle-overs bowling. The predicted lineup drops because the franchise will likely make different choices...
LSG's Optimal 11: Pant's Middle-Order Anchor Behind a Three-Overseas Top Three
LSG's Optimal XI ranks sixth for squad strength — with M Siddharth at death bowler and Digvesh Singh at middle-overs bowler forming one of the most dominant spin-bowling pairs in the league. Pant anchors the middle order...
DC's Optimal 11: Starc and Kuldeep Anchor the Strongest Bowling Rotation in Delhi
DC's Optimal XI ranks ninth for squad strength — with Kuldeep Yadav and Ashutosh Sharma as the two highest-impact players. DC will likely open with Porel and KL Rahul instead of the model's preference, costing them some projected upside...
CSK's Optimal 11: Brevis Tops the Chart While Samson Anchors at First Drop
CSK's Optimal XI ranks joint-second for squad strength — with Dewald Brevis a perfect fit at middle order, Sanju Samson opening, and Ayush Mhatre adding explosive power. The predicted lineup includes Dhoni at finisher, which the model sees as a slight downgrade...
PBKS's Optimal 11: Arshdeep-Chahal Lead an All-Indian Bowling Attack
PBKS's Optimal XI ranks tied third for squad strength — with Suryansh Shedge as a near-perfect finisher and Mitch Owen anchoring the middle order. The gap between optimal and predicted lineups is the largest of any franchise, suggesting significant selection decisions ahead...
RR's Optimal 11: Jaiswal and Jadeja Open in the League's Most Unconventional Pairing
RR's Optimal XI ranks seventh for squad strength — with Sandeep Sharma anchoring the powerplay bowling and Donovan Ferreira the middle order. The predicted lineup is the weakest in the league, highlighting the gulf between what the model wants and what RR will likely field...