Abdul Samad's profile is defined by one number: the 88 point gap between his 193 SR against pace and 104 SR against spin at the death. That is one of the largest pace/spin splits in the IPL for a finisher. The model places him at #7 in LSG's optimal XII, one spot below his natural finisher profile, because his pace-hitting at the death is genuinely elite while his spin-hitting is a liability.

His regressed WAR/M of 0.16 sits in the replacement-level range. His projected WAR/M of 0.17 reflects the model's view that he is a role player, not a difference-maker.

Role in Optimal XII

Samad's position justification weights death-overs pace-hitting at 44% of the role. His 193 SR against pace across 189 balls is the stat that keeps him in the XI. The problem is everything else: a 104 SR against spin at the death across 69 balls, and a 108 SR against spin in the middle overs across 125 balls.

Matchup Profile

Opposition captains have a clear plan: bowl spin at Samad whenever possible, especially at the death. His 104 against death-overs spin makes him a sitting duck for quality leg-spinners and off-spinners. Smart teams will hold a spinner back specifically for this matchup.

Phase-by-Phase Breakdown

His distribution: 9% in the PP, 46% in the middle, 45% at the death. That heavy death-overs concentration is appropriate for a finisher at #7.

Middle (7-15): 124 SR. Well below the 145 average. He struggles to score in this phase.

Death (16-20): 176 SR overall, but the split tells the real story. Against pace: 193. Against spin: 104.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Samad's xImpact of 52 projects him as a limited contributor. LSG needs him for one specific job: hitting pace at the death. If the opposition bowls pace in the final overs, Samad is dangerous. If they bowl spin, he is a weakness. The lack of bowling utility (-0.01 bowling WAR/M) means he offers pure batting value only.