Ansh Patel is a bowler whose T20 career data skews heavily international: 96% of his profile comes from T20I cricket, with only 5% from SMAT. That makes his domestic sample almost non-existent for projection purposes, and the model is essentially extrapolating from international data.

The SMAT bowling line reads 42 balls, 1 wicket, 7 economy. That is 7 overs of domestic cricket. At this volume, the economy is essentially meaningless as a predictive tool. One good over or one bad over would swing it by a full run in either direction. There is no signal to extract from 7 overs.

His batting sample is even thinner: 6 runs off 4 balls across 1 innings.

The model leans on the T20I data to produce a current WAR/M of 0.44. That is a strong number, but it reflects international performance rather than domestic projections. The model applies heavy regression, landing on 0.21 WAR/M for IPL 2026 at low confidence with a declining trajectory.

The declining trajectory is the concerning flag. It means Patel's most recent data points have been weaker than his career aggregate, raising questions about whether the T20I numbers reflect current ability or historical peak. A bowler trending downward from international heights may land at a level above domestic peers but below IPL starters.

For IPL franchises, Patel presents a familiar gamble: do you trust the international pedigree or the recent decline? The T20I track record says he can compete. The declining trajectory says the best may be behind him. The SMAT data says nothing useful at all.

Patel needs a full SMAT season to give the model domestic evidence. Until then, the projection is more extrapolation than estimation. A franchise would be buying the international resume, not the domestic body of work.

All numbers from SMAT (Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy) and domestic T20 career data.