Arshdeep Singh (PBKS): 50% PP Dot Rate and the Highest Projected Pace Bowler WAR
Arshdeep Singh is the model's highest-projected pace bowler on PBKS, with a projected WAR/M of 0.29 that significantly exceeds his raw WAR/M of 0.16. The projection boost comes from the model detecting improvement in his bowling profile and expecting continued development. His bowling WAR/M of 0.16 and Ecae of 1 place him in the top tier of IPL pacers for economy relative to phase difficulty.
Bowling Role: New Ball (2pp + 2death)
The model assigns Arshdeep to the New Ball role with 2 powerplay overs and 2 death overs. His role fit of 1.23 and justification: strong PP dot% (50% vs 46% avg), elite overall dot% (42% vs 37% avg), and elite PP six% (3% vs 5% avg). He bowls 52% of his career balls in the powerplay.
That 50% powerplay dot rate is the standout. Half of all deliveries in the powerplay produce zero runs. His PP six suppression at 3% vs 5% means openers cannot clear the boundary against him in the powerplay. Combined with the death-overs allocation, he provides high-value bowling in the two most important phases.
| Phase | Overs | Economy | vs Avg | Wickets | Dot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP (1-6) | 2 | 8.5 | -0.6 vs 9.1 | — | 50% |
| Death (16-20) | 2 | 9.8 | -0.5 vs 10.3 | 12 | 30% |
Over 3753 career bowling balls across 176 T20 matches, Arshdeep has established himself as one of India's premier T20 pacers. His bowling surplus of 56 is the highest on the roster, confirming elite over-performance relative to replacement level.
Batting
Arshdeep has 0 career batting balls in the dataset. He is a pure bowling selection with no expected batting contribution.
Projection Model
The model projects Arshdeep at 0.29 WAR/M, nearly double his regressed 0.16. That gap indicates the model detects a strong positive trajectory in his bowling. His bowling surplus of 56 is the highest on the roster, confirming elite over-performance vs replacement level.
The bowling role scores show clear specialization: New Ball 1.23, Death 1.16, Middle 0.54. He is a two-phase bowler who should not bowl in the middle overs. The model's 2 PP and 2 death allocation respects this profile.
International Pedigree
With 176 T20 matches, Arshdeep has represented India in T20 internationals and is one of the more experienced Indian pace bowlers in franchise cricket. That international experience against the best batters in the world adds confidence to his IPL projections. His 3753 career bowling ball sample is large enough that the model treats his numbers with near-full confidence.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Arshdeep anchors PBKS' pace attack. His 2 powerplay and 2 death allocation means he bowls in the highest-leverage phases, leaving the middle overs to Harpreet Brar and Yuzvendra Chahal. As a domestic player, he does not cost an overseas slot, which adds structural value to the team.
The PP-death combination is particularly valuable. He opens the bowling and then returns at the death, bookending the innings. Cooper Connolly bowls the other new-ball overs, and Marco Jansen handles the remaining death overs. This creates a clean four-bowler rotation through the highest-leverage phases. His xImpact of 49 and projected WAR/M of 0.29 make him one of the most important players on the roster.