Ashwani Kumar's phase-adjusted economy sits at -1.6 Ecae, meaning he conceded 1.6 runs per over more than league average across the phases he bowled. That is a painful number. But the asterisk matters: it comes from just 153 bowling balls across 9 T20 matches.

The Small Sample Problem

132 T20 balls at IPL level puts Kumar in the zone where individual bad overs can swing the entire profile. One expensive death over in a 9-match career moves the economy by a full run. His bowling WAR registers at -0.12, which is negative, but the model's regression pulls his overall projected WAR up to 0.11 per match. That regression reflects the model's belief that small-sample disasters often moderate with exposure.

His IPL confidence score of 0.40 confirms the uncertainty. We are less than half-confident in any projection for Kumar. The data tells us he has been expensive; it does not tell us he will stay expensive.

Squad Context

Kumar is a domestic pace bowler on a roster loaded with pace options. Jasprit Bumrah (0.93 projected WAR), Trent Boult (0.43), Deepak Chahar (0.34), and Corbin Bosch (0.12) all sit ahead of him. Even Shardul Thakur (0.14) ranks higher.

Kumar is the sixth pace option. His xImpact of 42 is higher than Markande's 28, but that reflects potential role value rather than demonstrated performance.

Projection

The model projects 0.11 WAR per match for IPL 2026. That projection leans heavily on regression to the mean, not on anything Kumar has shown. He needs reps. If he can bring that Ecae closer to 0.0, he has a frame and role as a middle-overs pace option. Until then, he is a net bowler with upside that remains entirely theoretical.