Ayush Badoni scored 329 runs in IPL 2025, but his SRae of -6 reveals a batter who scored slower than expected for his phase distribution. His regressed WAR/M of 0.12 keeps him outside the optimal XII, where Abdul Samad and the overseas bats provide more value.

His batting WAR/M of 0.09 across 865 batting balls is underwhelming. He does not bowl, removing any all-round utility.

Why He Misses the XII

Badoni competes for the Indian middle-order slot that Abdul Samad holds. Samad's death-overs pace-hitting gives him the edge in the model's optimization, despite Badoni having more IPL experience (54 matches vs Samad's 65).

The spin vulnerability is the core issue. Against spin in the middle overs, Badoni strikes at 102 across 247 balls, a 27 point deficit versus the 129 average. At #5 or #6, he faces peak spin in the middle overs. That matchup weakness is disqualifying.

Phase-by-Phase Breakdown

Middle (7-15) (60% of balls): 119 SR. A 13% boundary rate confirms limited scoring ability in this phase.

Death (16-20) (35%): 165 SR. Slightly below average.

Powerplay (1-6) (5%): 71 SR. Terrible, though the sample is small (59 balls).

Path to the XII

Badoni enters if Samad underperforms or is injured. He offers a more conventional middle-order profile with better rotation skills and match-management ability. His projected WAR/M of 0.11 is close to Samad's, making them near-interchangeable in the model's view.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Badoni's xImpact of 42 projects limited impact. He is first domestic batting reserve, ready to slot in if needed. His value increases on slower surfaces where his rotation-based approach is more effective, and decreases on flat decks where strike rate matters more.