Blessing Muzarabani (KKR): 49% Dot Ball Rate Earns Pathirana's Spot in the XII
Blessing Muzarabani's overall dot ball percentage of 49% sits 12 points above the 37% league average. With Matheesha Pathirana injured, Muzarabani steps into the optimal XII as KKR's overseas pace spearhead. His regressed WAR per match of 0.23 gives KKR a credible replacement.
The model deploys Muzarabani as a death-overs specialist, bowling 3 overs: 1 in the powerplay and 2 at the death. His death-overs dot ball percentage of 38% is 6 points above the 32% average.
Death Bowling Profile
Muzarabani's death economy of 9 sits below the 10 league average. That saving of roughly 1 run per over at the death, across 2 overs per game, translates to 2 runs saved per match in the most expensive phase.
His bowling role scores confirm death-overs suitability:
| Role | Fit Score |
|---|---|
| New Ball | 2.24 |
| Middle | 1.01 |
| Death | 1.46 |
The new-ball score of 2.24 is actually the highest, but the model allocates only 1 powerplay over because KKR has Vaibhav Arora as a dedicated new-ball specialist. Muzarabani's versatility across phases gives the captain flexibility.
Replacing Pathirana
Pathirana's injury creates a significant gap: his projected WAR of 0.43 for 2026 exceeds Muzarabani's 0.23. That is a 0.20 WAR/M deficit per match. KKR loses roughly 3 projected wins over a 14 match league stage.
Muzarabani partially compensates with his elite dot ball control. Across 2000 career bowling balls and 93 matches, he has maintained a powerplay economy of 6 and death economy of 9. The overall economy of 7 across 333 overs is strong.
His bowling WAR of 0.25 per match, combined with 0 batting contribution, makes him a bowling-only value proposition. The IPL confidence of 0.82 reflects a good T20 sample from international cricket.
Overseas Slot Cost
Muzarabani is the fourth overseas player in KKR's XII, joining Allen, Seifert, and Narine. His presence means Cameron Green (0.40) and Rachin Ravindra (0.28) sit outside the XI despite higher overall WAR. The model prioritizes bowling balance: without Muzarabani (or Pathirana), KKR lacks a frontline overseas pace option.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Muzarabani is a like-for-like replacement for Pathirana at a lower ceiling. His dot ball pressure in the death overs gives KKR the bowling control they need when defending totals. The xImpact of 41 reflects a reliable contributor rather than a match-winner. If Pathirana returns mid-season, Muzarabani becomes the first overseas player to make way.