Cooper Connolly bowls as the new ball specialist in the model's optimal XII, assigned 3 powerplay overs and 1 middle over across his 4 over allocation. His projected WAR/M of 0.22 splits evenly between batting (0.10 WAR/M) and bowling (0.15 WAR/M), making him a genuine dual contributor. With just 38 T20 matches, regression tempers his raw WAR/M of 0.26, but the bowling profile is already established.

Bowling Role: New Ball (3pp + 1mid)

The model assigns Connolly to the New Ball role with a fit of 0.97. His justification: elite PP boundary% (17% vs 22% avg), strong PP economy (8 vs 9 avg), with 28% of his career balls in the powerplay.

By phase: 8 PP economy (vs 9 avg), 7 mid economy (vs 9 avg), 9 death economy (vs 10 avg). He is below league average economy in every phase, a rare all-phase bowling profile.

Over 552 career bowling balls, he has taken 31 wickets. The PP boundary suppression at 17% vs 22% average is the headline, limiting the damage openers can do in the powerplay.

Batting

Connolly bats in the lower order with a career SR of 137. His death-overs SR of 185 across 133 balls shows genuine finishing ability. Against spin at the death, he strikes at 269 SR across 26 balls. The powerplay (108 SR) and middle overs (131 SR) are weaknesses with the bat. He is effective only in the death phase.

Sample Size and Regression

With 38 T20 matches and 552 bowling balls, Connolly's numbers carry a moderate regression penalty. His raw WAR/M of 0.26 drops to 0.22 after adjustment. The bowling numbers are the most trustworthy part of his profile, while the batting (particularly the 269 death spin SR on 26 balls) needs more data.

His bowling role scores reveal interesting optionality: New Ball 0.97, Middle 1.61, Death 0.91. The model picks New Ball as his role because it maximizes team balance, but his middle-overs numbers (7 economy) are even stronger. If PBKS need to reshuffle bowling roles mid-tournament, Connolly can slot into the middle overs.

The Overseas Slot Question

Connolly takes one of 4 overseas spots ahead of Lockie Ferguson, Azmatullah Omarzai, Ben Dwarshuis, and Xavier Bartlett. His dual contribution (bowling WAR/M 0.15 plus batting WAR/M 0.10) is the key differentiator. Pure bowlers like Ferguson and Dwarshuis offer higher bowling-only value, but Connolly's death-overs batting adds a dimension they cannot match. When Ferguson returns from injury after 7 games, the overseas competition intensifies.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Connolly occupies one of PBKS' 4 overseas slots. The justification is his bowling: 3 powerplay overs at 8 economy paired with death-overs batting upside. He gives Shreyas Iyer a reliable new-ball option alongside Arshdeep Singh, and his lower-order death hitting adds unexpected depth. His xImpact of 40 suggests a role player whose value exceeds what the batting stats alone suggest.