David Miller's SRae of -32 is the worst on Delhi Capitals' roster by a wide margin. He scores 32 points below the expected strike rate for the phases he bats in. His batting surplus of -39 is the most negative on the squad. The projected WAR/M of 0.10 for 2026 reflects significant age-related regression from a raw WAR of 0.21.

Miller is not in the optimal XII. Tristan Stubbs occupies the #6 slot that Miller would compete for, and Stubbs projects at 0.31 WAR/M compared to Miller's 0.10.

The Decline

His 1282 IPL balls and 5734 total batting balls give the model extremely high confidence (0.87) in the assessment. This is not a small-sample fluke. His death share of 57 percent confirms he is a death-overs specialist, but the death-overs production has deteriorated. The -39 batting surplus means he is actively hurting the scoring rate compared to a replacement-level batter in the same phases.

His xImpact of 63 remains high because it incorporates historical production, but the forward-looking projection tells a different story. At his age, further decline is the baseline expectation.

When He Plays

Miller is an overseas player, which makes his path to selection even narrower. DC would need to drop one of Duckett, Stubbs, Starc, or Chameera and use Miller's overseas slot instead. Given that Miller's projected WAR/M is lower than all four current overseas selections, this swap is unlikely unless multiple overseas players are unavailable simultaneously.

His experience of 5734 T20 balls and deep IPL history make him a potential leadership presence, but the model does not value intangibles.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Miller is a squad depth option whose best days appear behind him. His -32 SRae and -39 batting surplus are red flags that the model takes seriously. If he plays, DC should expect below-average production in the middle and death phases. His path to contributing is narrow: a short burst of form in a specific match situation where his experience matters more than his projected numbers.