Digvesh Rathi (LSG): 0.66 Raw Bowling WAR/M Makes Him the IPL's Best-Kept Secret
Digvesh Rathi's raw bowling WAR/M of 0.66 is staggering. That number regresses sharply to 0.31 once you account for his 312 career bowling balls and 63% IPL confidence, but even the conservative estimate makes him LSG's most valuable bowler. His Ecae of 1.12 means he concedes 1 fewer runs per over than expected for the phases he bowls in.
The model assigns Rathi 4 overs as a middle-overs specialist, bowling all 4 overs through overs 7-15. That is the maximum allocation for a single bowler, reflecting the model's confidence in his middle-overs control. His bowling surplus of 59 runs saved above replacement is the highest bowling figure in the squad.
Role in Optimal XII
Rathi's bowling role justification highlights several elite metrics. His middle-overs economy of 7.7 sits well below the 8.5 league average. His boundary percentage in the middle overs of 14% is elite versus the 16% average. His overall boundary rate of 16% across all phases sits below the 19% league average.
His bowling role fit score of 1.25 confirms the middle overs as his optimal deployment. His new-ball score (0.49) and death score (0.67) are both significantly weaker, making his role clear: he is a middle-overs control spinner who should not be asked to bowl in other phases.
Bowling Phase Breakdown
| Phase | Economy | vs League Avg | Wickets | Dot % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle (52%) | 7.7 | +0.8 below avg | 8 | 31% |
| Powerplay (29%) | 8.2 | +0.9 below avg | 2 | 33% |
| Death (19%) | 9.7 | +0.6 below avg | 4 | 25% |
The middle overs are his bread and butter. An economy of 7.7 with 31% dots means he contains while taking 8 wickets. Even in phases outside his optimal deployment, he performs above league average. His PP economy of 8.2 and death economy of 9.7 are both better than their respective league averages.
Sample Size Caution
The biggest caveat is sample size. With just 13 T20 matches and 312 bowling balls, the regression from 0.66 raw to 0.31 regressed WAR/M is substantial. His IPL confidence of 63% reflects the uncertainty. If his small-sample production holds up against IPL-quality lineups over a full season, he could be the breakout spinner of IPL 2026. If he regresses toward the mean, he is still a competent middle-overs option.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Rathi projects at 0.31 WAR/M with an xImpact of 53. He is the linchpin of LSG's middle-overs bowling strategy. The model gives him the maximum 4 overs in the middle phase because his numbers justify it. LSG needs him to replicate his economy and boundary suppression against stronger batting lineups. If he holds form, LSG will have one of the best middle-overs bowling units in the IPL. The risk is that 312 balls is a small sample, and IPL batters will study his patterns and adjust.