Jacob Duffy (RCB): 7.6 PP Economy Overseas Pacer Blocked by Hazlewood
Jacob Duffy's regressed WAR/M of 0.12 reflects a useful pace bowler whose overseas status blocks his selection. His bowling WAR/M of 0.09 is modest. Across 968 bowling balls and 47 matches, the sample is limited but his IPL confidence of 0.75 confirms reasonable T20-level data.
The model sees Hazlewood (0.41 projected WAR/M) as the clear overseas pace choice. Duffy would need Hazlewood to miss matches to enter the XI.
Bowling Profile
Duffy's career economy of 7.9 across 165 overs with 68 wickets shows genuine all-phase capability. His powerplay economy of 7.6 with 35 wickets across 60% of his balls is the strongest phase. That is 1.5 runs per over below the 9.1 average.
At the death, 8.6 economy with 25 wickets across 28% of balls. In the middle, 7.9 with 8 wickets. The all-phase competence is notable. Duffy can bowl in any phase without being a liability.
| Phase | Economy | Wickets | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP (1-6) | 7.6 | 35 | 60% |
| Mid (7-15) | 7.9 | 8 | 12% |
| Death (16-20) | 8.6 | 25 | 28% |
The death economy of 8.6 is 1.7 runs per over below the 10.3 average. That makes him a viable death-overs option as well as a powerplay bowler.
Why He Misses the XI
Overseas slot constraint. Hazlewood's 0.41 projected WAR/M more than triples Duffy's 0.12. Even if a second overseas pace slot opened, Bhuvneshwar's domestic status fills the pace bowling need without consuming a foreign spot.
Path to the XI
If Hazlewood is unavailable due to international duty or injury, Duffy's powerplay profile (7.6 economy, wicket-taking ability) makes him a direct replacement. His all-phase bowling means he could also fill the Hazlewood death-overs role rather than just covering the powerplay.
Comparison with Thushara
Duffy and Thushara both project at 0.12 regressed WAR/M. Duffy has the edge in death-overs economy (8.6 vs 9.8) and overall wicket-taking rate across phases. Thushara provides slightly more aggressive powerplay bowling. In most scenarios, Duffy enters the XI first because his all-phase capability provides more flexibility for the captain.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Duffy is the overseas pace reserve. His xImpact of 38 and projected 0.12 WAR/M position him as a squad player. The path to regular selection requires Hazlewood's absence. Given Australia's international calendar, that scenario is plausible for at least a few matches, making Duffy a valuable insurance policy. His all-phase bowling capability means he can slot into Hazlewood's exact role without requiring a restructure of the bowling plan.
The 68 career wickets across 165 overs give a bowling strike rate of approximately one wicket every 14 balls. That wicket-taking ability combined with economy control makes him the most complete backup pace option in the squad, domestic or overseas. If Hazlewood plays all 14 league matches, Duffy may never feature. But as an insurance policy against international scheduling conflicts, his value to the squad is significant.
His xImpact of 38 sits in the lower range of the squad but comfortably above the zero-data players. The model has enough data to generate a reliable projection, even if the sample (968 bowling balls) is not yet deep enough for high confidence. A strong IPL campaign in a Hazlewood-absent window could establish him as a genuine rotation option for future seasons.