Josh Hazlewood (RCB): 48% Career Dot Ball Rate Powers 0.41 Projected WAR/M
Josh Hazlewood projects at 0.41 WAR/M for IPL 2026, the highest among all RCB bowlers and third-highest on the entire roster. His bowling WAR/M of 0.32 produces all his value. Across 2503 career bowling balls and 111 matches, the sample is substantial enough to project confidently.
The model assigns Hazlewood a Death bowling role: 1 powerplay over and 3 death overs. His death role fit of 1.13 and new ball role fit of 2.06 create an interesting tension. The model could use him exclusively as a new-ball bowler (where his fit is even higher), but RCB's squad construction demands his death-overs containment. Bhuvneshwar handles the bulk of PP overs, freeing Hazlewood for the death.
Dot Ball Machine
Hazlewood's overall dot ball percentage of 48% is elite. The league average is 37%. That 11 point gap means nearly half of all deliveries he bowls produce zero runs. Every second ball, the batter fails to score. That kind of relentless pressure builds over an innings.
At the death, his dot ball percentage of 35% exceeds the 32% average. In a phase where batters attack everything and target the boundary on every delivery, maintaining 35% dots is outstanding containment.
Death Overs: Containment Over Wickets
The model notes his death wicket rate is average (0.4% vs 0.5% average). Hazlewood is not a death-overs wicket-taker in the traditional sense. He is a death-overs container. He prevents boundaries and forces batters into high-risk shots that may result in catches or run-outs. The approach trades strike rate for dots, reducing scoring without necessarily filling the wickets column.
This profile is complementary. Other bowlers in RCB's attack (Bhuvneshwar in the PP, Krunal in the middle) take wickets. Hazlewood squeezes the scoring rate at the death so that batters must take risks against less reliable options.
Phase-Adjusted Economy
His Ecae of 0.78 means he concedes 0.78 runs per over less than expected for the phases he bowls in. The bowling surplus of 34 confirms strong performance above replacement. His IPL confidence of 0.78 reflects solid IPL-level data.
IPL 2025 Season Review
In IPL 2025, he took 22 wickets in 44 overs at 8.6 economy. His powerplay was particularly strong: 7.3 economy with 54% dots and 10 wickets. That 10 powerplay wickets in a single season shows genuine new-ball threat alongside his containing approach.
| Phase | Economy | Dot% | Wickets |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP (1-6) | 7.3 | 54% | 10 |
| Death (16-20) | — | 35% | — |
Bowling Role Scores
The model rates his fit across phases: New Ball 2.06, Death 1.13, Middle 0.71. The new ball fit is the highest of any bowling role on the squad. If Bhuvneshwar were unavailable, Hazlewood could seamlessly shift to a 3 PP plus 1 death configuration and potentially perform even better.
Overseas Slot Justification
Hazlewood's projected 0.41 WAR/M is the highest among all RCB bowlers, making the overseas slot straightforward. His xImpact of 56 sits in the reliable range. No domestic pace alternative replicates his death-overs containment.
Partnership with Bhuvneshwar
The pace duo of Hazlewood and Bhuvneshwar gives RCB two of the best new-ball bowlers in the league sharing the powerplay. Bhuvneshwar bowls 3 PP overs while Hazlewood bowls 1. At the death, Hazlewood takes over with 3 overs. That clear phase separation maximizes both bowlers without overlap.
Ecae and Surplus
His Ecae of 0.78 and bowling surplus of 34 are both strong. The model projects his 2026 WAR/M at 0.41, higher than his career 0.27 because the projection model weights recent form and the death-overs role fit. His IPL 2025 season was particularly strong, pulling the projection upward.
Across 2503 career bowling balls, Hazlewood's numbers are stable. The standard deviation of his match-by-match bowling figures is low, meaning you know what you are getting every time he takes the ball. That consistency is what separates him from high-variance bowling options.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Hazlewood is RCB's most valuable bowler by projected WAR/M. His dot-ball approach may not produce flashy wicket hauls, but it creates the kind of sustained pressure that makes every other bowler more effective. If the death-overs containment holds and the powerplay wickets continue, he justifies his overseas slot comprehensively.
International duty conflicts (Australia schedules) are the main risk to his availability. If he misses matches, Duffy (0.12 regressed WAR/M) steps in, but the drop-off from 0.41 to 0.12 would be the largest single-player loss in RCB's squad.
The combination of powerplay wicket-taking and death-overs containment makes Hazlewood uniquely valuable. Most bowlers specialize in one phase. Hazlewood delivers in both, which is why his projected WAR/M leads all RCB bowlers despite bowling only 4 overs per match. For RCB's title ambitions, Hazlewood's availability for the full season is as important as any single factor in the squad. No other bowler on the roster replicates his dual-phase value, and the drop-off to backup options is the steepest at any position.