Kartik Sharma projects at 0.03 WAR per match for IPL 2026, the lowest figure among bowlers in CSK's optimal XII. His regressed WAR/M of 0.08 and bowling WAR/M of 0.06 reflect a bowler who sits below replacement level in projected output. Across 2331 career bowling balls and 13 T20 matches, the projection carries meaningful regression.

The model assigns Sharma as a Middle-phase specialist, bowling all 4 overs in the middle. His bowling role fit score of 0.80 confirms he is not a premium option, but he fills a structural need: CSK requires a domestic pace option for the middle overs, and Sharma is the best available fit.

Bowling Role and Justification

Sharma's middle-overs numbers carry red flags. His middle-overs six rate of 10% is nearly double the 6% league average. His middle-overs economy of 9.1 exceeds the 8.5 average. His middle-overs boundary rate of 18% is above the 16% average. With 91% of his career balls in the middle overs, these numbers are based on a concentrated sample.

The role scores tell the story: Middle 0.80, New Ball 0.40, Death 0.37. He is a middle-overs bowler by default, not by elite performance. The model selects him because CSK's XII needs a fifth bowling option, and Sharma's domestic status and ability to bowl all four overs in a single phase makes him the most roster-efficient choice.

Selection Context

Sharma's presence in the XII is structural rather than performance-based. CSK's bowling attack of Chahar, Noor Ahmad, Hosein, and Khaleel Ahmed covers the powerplay, middle, and death phases. Sharma provides the additional middle overs needed to complete the 20 over bowling allocation. Without him, CSK would need another bowler, and the alternatives (Anshul Kamboj, Mukesh Choudhary) either require a different bowling phase assignment or project lower.

His batting adds minimal value: 0.01 batting WAR/M across 586 balls at 119 career SR.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Sharma is the weak link in CSK's bowling attack by the numbers. His xImpact of 22 is the lowest in the XII. Opposition batters should target his middle overs as the most attackable window in CSK's bowling plan. If Sharma's 10% six rate continues, CSK may rotate in Anshul Kamboj (0.30 projected WAR/M, but not currently in the XII) or Shreyas Gopal as alternatives. Sharma's path to retaining his spot depends on reducing the boundary rate and staying close to the 8.5 economy target.