Lungisani Ngidi's career numbers look impressive on the surface: 157 T20 wickets across 111 matches at 8.5 economy. But the model's projected WAR/M of -0.03 for 2026 tells a different story. His current WAR/M of 0.05 is already near replacement level, and the forward projection accounts for age-related decline.

His bowling WAR of 0.04 is marginal. His bowling surplus is not available, suggesting the model found no phase where he creates meaningful value above replacement. His PP economy of 8.0 across 49 percent of his career workload is his best phase, but even that advantage has narrowed in recent seasons.

Not in the XII

DC's overseas pace bowling goes to Starc (death specialist) and Chameera (PP specialist). Ngidi offers neither the death dot ball pressure of Starc nor the PP boundary suppression of Chameera. His 0.05 current WAR/M and -0.03 projected WAR/M make him the weakest overseas pace option on the roster.

His xImpact of 20 is the lowest among DC's bowlers. With 2370 total bowling balls and 912 IPL balls, the model has high confidence (0.82) that the decline is real, not a sample artifact.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Ngidi is a deep reserve whose selection would require multiple overseas pace injuries. His career wicket-taking record is notable, but current form and the model's forward projection do not support selection over any other overseas option on the roster.