Matt Henry projects at 0.06 WAR per match for IPL 2026. His raw WAR/M of -0.01 is negative, and across 1024 career bowling balls and 51 T20 matches, the model sees a bowler trending downward. His IPL confidence of 76% provides a reasonable sample for projection, and the number is not flattering.

Henry's primary value historically came from the powerplay, where he posted 7.7 economy with 29 wickets across 61% of his bowling. His death economy of 10.5 is close to the 10.2 average, and his middle-overs economy of 8.5 matches the 8.5 average. He is a containing bowler across phases without excelling in any.

Why Excluded?

Henry does not make the XII for two reasons. His projected WAR/M of 0.06 falls below every other overseas option on the roster. Noor Ahmad (0.46), Short (0.30), Brevis (0.47), Hosein (0.15), and Ellis (0.25) all outproject him substantially. Even Foulkes (0.09) edges him.

Second, his bowling produces marginal value. The negative raw WAR/M means he has cost his teams more runs than he has saved relative to a replacement bowler in recent seasons.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Henry is an emergency overseas pace option. He would need injuries to multiple overseas players and the unavailability of domestic pace alternatives like Kamboj to see match action. His experience and containment profile provide security, but the projected production does not warrant selection ahead of CSK's current overseas four. His xImpact of 34 reflects a depth player rather than a contributor.