Mohammad Shami slots into LSG's optimal XII as the primary new-ball bowler. The model gives him 3 overs with a 2 PP and 1 middle-overs split. His bowling role fit of 1.65 is the highest new-ball fit score among LSG's pace options, and the justification is built on powerplay control.

His PP dot ball percentage of 53% is elite against the 46% league average. His PP economy of 8.0 sits below the 8.6 average. Across 3136 career bowling balls, these patterns are backed by a meaningful sample.

Role in Optimal XII

Shami's new-ball fit of 1.65 dwarfs his middle (0.46) and death (0.75) scores. He is a pure new-ball specialist. The model allocates 65% of his balls to the powerplay, confirming this deployment.

His overall dot rate of 46% versus 37% average further supports his role as a pressure-building bowler. He does not take wickets at an elite rate (0.2% vs 0.3% average), but his economy and dot-ball generation create sustained pressure.

Bowling Phase Breakdown

Powerplay (1-6): 8.0 economy, 53% dots, 23 career PP wickets. This is his domain.

Middle (7-15): His Ecae of -1.76 tells a different story. In the middle overs, his effectiveness drops. The model limits him to 1 over here.

Death (16-20): Not deployed. His death bowling numbers do not justify overs in this phase.

Experience Factor

With 3136 bowling balls across T20 cricket and an IPL confidence of 78%, Shami brings a large, reliable sample. His regressed WAR/M of 0.14 is the floor. The projected WAR/M of 0.20 factors in a potential return to peak form after his injury layoff.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Shami's xImpact of 31 reflects his role as a supporting bowler rather than a match-winner. LSG needs him to set the tone in the powerplay: build dot-ball pressure, keep the economy under control, and create opportunities for the other end. His bowling surplus of -53 runs in IPL 2025 suggests he leaked more than expected, but the projected improvement reflects the model's belief in his skill set when fully fit.