Mohammed Siraj profiles as a specialist pace bowler, and the model deploys him in the death bowling role for GT's optimal XI. His WAR per match of 0.35 is driven almost entirely by his bowling, with a bowling WAR/M of 0.40 that ranks him among the top pace bowlers in the IPL. Across 3168 career bowling balls and 147 T20 matches, the sample is robust.

The model assigns him 3 overs: 1 in the PP and 2 at the death. His bowling role justification centers on death-overs dot ball percentage. Siraj posts an 39% death dot% against a 32% league average. His overall dot% of 46% vs 37% average confirms he creates pressure across phases.

The death wicket rate of 0.4% sits near the 0.5% average, meaning he is more containment-focused than wicket-taking at the death. That is not a flaw. Death-overs containment is the harder skill to find, because it requires consistently hitting difficult lengths under pressure rather than bowling occasional magic balls.

Bowling Phase Breakdown

Death Overs (16-20): This is Siraj's primary assignment. An 39% dot ball rate at the death creates sustained pressure that forces batters into risky shots. In a phase where batters are looking to score on every ball, generating dots at this rate is genuinely disruptive. Opposition batters who expect to score freely in the final overs against GT will find Siraj a different proposition.

The death share of 100% confirms the model's focus. Every ball Siraj bowls in the death overs is a ball GT are winning.

Powerplay (1-6): Siraj bowls 1 PP over as a secondary assignment. His new-ball fit score of 1.39 is actually higher than his death fit, suggesting he could be even more effective in the PP. But GT's bowling construction prioritizes Prasidh Krishna with the new ball and Siraj at the death, splitting the two domestic pacers across the highest-leverage phases.

The case for giving Siraj more PP overs is real. His pace and ability to move the ball off the surface are assets with the new ball. But the death overs are where margins are thinnest, and the model values his elite dot generation more in that phase.

Bowling Profile

Siraj's Ecae of 0.64 means he saves nearly two-thirds of a run per over compared to what a league-average bowler would concede in the same phases. Over a 3 over spell, that translates to 2 runs saved per match. Across a 14 match season, those savings compound into a meaningful wins-above-replacement contribution.

His bowling role fit score of 1.05 for the death assignment and 1.39 for the new-ball role confirm the model's confidence across multiple deployment options. Siraj is not a one-trick bowler. He can operate effectively in multiple phases, but the model chooses death because that is where GT need him most.

In recent production, he took 16 wickets in 57 overs at 9 economy. The bowling surplus of 37 confirms significant value above replacement.

Batting Contribution

Siraj offers negligible batting value with a batting WAR/M of -0.01. He bats at the bottom of the order and is not expected to contribute with the bat. His 73 career batting balls confirm this is purely a bowling selection.

Partnership with Prasidh Krishna

The Siraj-Krishna domestic pace partnership is central to GT's bowling strategy. Krishna handles overs 1-2 (PP) while Siraj handles overs 18-19 (death). Together they cover the two most important bowling phases in T20 cricket. Krishna's 56% PP dot rate creates early pressure; Siraj's 39% death dot rate closes games.

Both are domestic selections, which is the structural advantage that makes GT's overseas batting depth possible. Teams that use overseas slots on pace bowlers sacrifice batting depth. GT do not have to make that trade-off because Siraj and Krishna are as effective as most overseas pacers.

The combined bowling WAR/M of Siraj (0.40) and Krishna (0.33) totals 0.73. That would be elite for a single bowler. Spread across two domestic players, it is a foundational advantage in squad construction.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Siraj's projected WAR/M of 0.44 for 2026 leads all GT bowlers. His xImpact of 58 and bowling surplus of 37 confirm he adds significant value above replacement.

The death dot% of 39% is the number that defines his value proposition. In the highest-leverage overs of the match, Siraj creates more pressure than almost any pace bowler in the IPL. That pressure forces batters into errors, even if Siraj's own wicket-taking rate is only average.

The model pairs him with Prasidh Krishna to form a potent domestic pace duo. Krishna handles the new ball; Siraj closes at the death. That split gives GT the luxury of not needing to burn an overseas slot on a frontline pace bowler for either role. The domestic pace pair of Siraj and Krishna generates a combined 0.61 WAR/M, rivaling any overseas pace option GT could deploy.

Siraj's IPL confidence of 0.85 means the model trusts his numbers heavily. He has proven himself at the IPL level specifically, not just in domestic or international T20s.

Death Overs Mechanics

What makes Siraj effective at the death is his ability to consistently hit difficult lengths under pressure. Death-overs bowling is the hardest phase in T20 cricket because batters are set, the ball is old, and the field is back. Bowlers who can generate 39% dot rates in this environment possess a rare skill: the ability to execute under maximum pressure.

Siraj's bowling at the death relies on accuracy rather than deception. He hits his lengths, varies pace slightly, and uses the crease position to create angles. That approach is more sustainable than relying on variations or trick balls, because accuracy is a repeatable skill while variations lose effectiveness once batters read them.

His 3168 career bowling balls provide the model with high confidence that this skill is real and sustainable. Small-sample death bowlers can look elite for a season then regress. Siraj's sample is large enough to rule out that possibility.