Pravin Dubey sits outside the model's optimal XII. His projected WAR/M of 0.15 is entirely batting-driven (0.11 raw batting WAR/M), with heavy regression pulling the number up from a thin IPL sample. His IPL confidence of 0.36 is among the lowest on the roster, meaning the model relies more on regression to the mean than on actual IPL performance data.

Batting Profile

In IPL 2025, Dubey scored 105 runs from 65 balls at 162 SR across 8 innings. The phase split tells the story.

Death (16-20): 198 SR from 40 balls. He accumulated 62% of his balls in the death phase, confirming a finisher profile. That 198 is 26 points above the 172 league average.

Middle (7-15): 63 SR from 19 balls. Extremely small sample, but a massive red flag when he bats in this phase.

Powerplay (1-6): 233 SR from 6 balls. Too few balls to matter.

SMAT data adds context: 226 SR from 19 balls in SMAT 2025, 117 SR from 83 balls in SMAT 2023. The domestic numbers suggest an aggressive, short-burst hitter.

Why He Misses the XII

PBKS' batting order runs seven deep with Priyansh Arya, Mitch Owen, Prabhsimran Singh, Shreyas Iyer, Nehal Wadhera, Marcus Stoinis, and Shashank Singh. All seven have stronger batting profiles than Dubey. His 84 T20 IPL ball sample is too small for the model to trust his death-overs numbers over the established alternatives. His xImpact of 47 is functional but does not displace anyone above him.

What This Means for IPL 2026

Dubey is the designated backup finisher. If Shashank Singh is rested or injured, Dubey slides into the #7 slot where his 198 death SR could provide value. The risk is the thin track record. If the death hitting does not translate from domestic cricket to IPL-quality bowling, PBKS need other options. His 0.15 projected WAR/M puts him at the threshold of XI-quality production if the sample grows.