Rishabh Pant (LSG): Captain's 207 Death SR Masks a -19 SRae Problem
Rishabh Pant is LSG's captain and the squad's most polarizing batting profile. His SRae of -19 is the worst among all XI batters, meaning he scored 19 points slower than the average batter would in identical phase situations. His overall regressed WAR/M of 0.27 is saved almost entirely by his death-overs production, where a 207 SR against pace across 163 balls is genuinely elite.
The model places Pant at #6 in the optimal XII. His natural profile is a middle-order (#5) batter, but LSG's overseas depth pushes him one spot lower. That is notable: the captain bats at #6, behind four overseas players and Abdul Samad. The model does not care about captaincy, it cares about run production.
Role in Optimal XII
Pant's position justification highlights the contradiction in his game. At the death, he is elite: 207 SR against pace across 163 balls. In the middle overs, he is below average against spin at 119 across 371 balls, but above average against pace at 148 across 304 balls. The spin vulnerability through overs 7-15 is the biggest hole in his batting profile.
Matchup Profile: Pace vs Spin
| Phase | Overall SR | vs Pace | vs Spin | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Powerplay | 121 | 113 (188b) | 152 (44b) | -39 |
| Middle | 132 | 148 (304b) | 119 (371b) | +29 |
| Death | 201 | 207 (163b) | 152 (21b) | +55 |
The splits reveal a complicated batter. In the PP, he prefers spin (152) over pace (113), a 39 point gap. In the middle overs, the preference flips: pace (148) over spin (119), a 29 point gap. At the death, pace dominance is complete at 207 while spin drops to 152.
Opposition captains have a clear playbook: bowl spin at Pant in the middle overs. His 119 against spin in the middle phase, across a substantial 371 ball sample, is a repeatable weakness.
Phase-by-Phase Breakdown
His ball distribution: 26% in the PP, 54% in the middle, 20% at the death.
Powerplay (1-6): 121 SR. This is 31 points below the 152 league average. A 52% dot rate means more than half his PP deliveries produce no runs. A 19% boundary rate confirms limited PP scoring.
Middle (7-15): 132 SR with 35% dots and 17% boundaries. Below the 145 league average, this is the phase that drags his SRae down.
Death (16-20): 201 SR with 31% boundaries. This 29 point surplus over the 172 league average is why he stays in the XI despite the earlier-phase struggles.
IPL 2025 Review
Pant scored 269 runs at 133 SR across 13 innings, averaging 21. He managed 2 fifties but also recorded 2 ducks, with a high score of 118. The standard deviation of 32 across those innings shows massive inconsistency. All 10 dismissals were catches.
His 70% boundary rate tells you he is a power-first batter who does not rely on rotation. That approach works at the death but creates dot-ball pressure in the PP and middle overs.
Captaincy Factor
Pant captains LSG. The model does not assign value to captaincy directly, but field placement decisions and bowling changes can add or subtract wins at the margins. His tactical acumen is an off-the-spreadsheet variable that could lift the entire squad's performance.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Pant projects at 0.25 WAR/M with an xImpact of 57. He is a solid contributor rather than a star, with his value concentrated in one phase. LSG needs to manage his batting position to maximize death-overs exposure while minimizing middle-overs spin matchups. If opposition captains consistently bowl spin at him through overs 7-15, his production will suffer. The captaincy intangible is the X-factor the model cannot capture.