Tim David (RCB): 194 SR vs Pace at Death Justifies the Overseas Slot at #6
Tim David's WAR/M of 0.30 earns him the #6 slot in RCB's optimal XII. His batting WAR/M of 0.33 confirms the bat carries his selection. Across 3243 career batting balls and 238 matches over 8 seasons, the sample is among the deepest for any franchise middle-order power hitter anywhere in the world.
His position fit score of 1.96 at Lower Middle (#6) reflects elite pace-hitting at the death and reliable middle-overs production. His IPL confidence of 0.87 confirms the data is heavily weighted toward top-level franchise cricket.
Death Overs vs Pace: The Primary Skill
David strikes at 194 against pace at the death across 722 balls. That is 35 points above the 159 average. The 722 ball sample makes this one of the most reliable death-overs numbers in the entire dataset. Over seven hundred deliveries of death-overs pace, David has faced every variety of yorker, bouncer, and slower ball in franchise cricket, and his production holds.
Against spin at the death, he sits at 140 across 560 balls, which is near the 149 average. The gap between his pace hitting (194) and spin hitting (140) at the death tells captains exactly what to bowl.
Overall Death Production
His overall death SR of 186 across 1328 balls is 14 points above the 172 IPL average. For a #6 who arrives with 6-8 overs left, death-overs hitting is the core skill, and David delivers.
Middle Overs: Steady Production
David faces 52% of his deliveries in the middle overs, where he strikes at 153 against pace across 554 balls and 140 against spin across 560 balls. Both numbers sit above their respective league averages, meaning he accelerates through the middle overs rather than merely surviving.
The middle-overs production is underrated. Most death-overs specialists struggle between overs 7 and 15, but David maintains above-average rates against both bowling types throughout.
Phase Splits
| Phase | SR | Balls | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP (1-6) | — | — | — |
| Mid (7-15) | 148 | 1114 | +4 |
| Death (16-20) | 186 | 1328 | +14 |
Death Share and Role
David's death share of 72% is the highest on the squad, confirming he is RCB's designated death-overs batter. He does not face powerplay bowling (0% PP share). His entire value is concentrated in the final 10 overs.
Overseas Slot Economics
David occupies one of RCB's 4 overseas slots alongside Salt, Hazlewood, and Romario Shepherd. His projected WAR/M of 0.24 for 2026 dips from his career 0.30 due to age regression. The model expects some decline, but even the projected number exceeds the domestic alternatives available at #6.
His xImpact of 83 is the second-highest on the squad behind Salt. That reflects the combination of a massive sample, elite death-overs pace hitting, and consistent middle-overs production.
Style Profile
David's 238 match career across 8 seasons establishes him as one of the most experienced T20 mercenaries in world cricket. He has played franchise leagues globally, adapting to different conditions and bowling attacks. That adaptability is reflected in his consistent middle-overs numbers against both pace and spin across different leagues.
His regressed WAR/M of 0.30 closely tracks his raw WAR/M of 0.33, meaning the model does not need to adjust significantly for sample uncertainty. The data is deep enough to project with confidence. The gap between regressed and projected (0.30 vs 0.24) represents the age-regression factor the model applies.
Matchup Vulnerability
The spin hitting at the death (140 across 560 balls) is the one area where opposition captains can create a matchup advantage. The 54 point gap between his death-overs pace SR (194) and spin SR (140) tells bowling coaches exactly what to do: deploy spinners against David in the final overs. Whether that matchup holds depends on the spinner's quality, but the data provides a clear direction.
What This Means for IPL 2026
David's role is straightforward: arrive in the middle overs, accelerate against both pace and spin, and finish innings at the death against pace. The 194 SR against death-overs pace is the skill that separates him from domestic alternatives and justifies the overseas slot.
If RCB's top order provides a platform, David has the numbers to convert it into match-winning totals. The projected decline to 0.24 WAR/M bears watching. If the death-overs production drops below 170, the overseas slot calculation changes. For now, the career body of work is too strong to ignore. The 3243 ball sample, 83 xImpact, and 194 death-overs pace SR combine to make David one of the safest overseas selections in the IPL. The floor is high even if the ceiling is declining. David is the type of player you build a franchise batting order around in the lower middle order, and his presence anchors RCB's death-overs strategy.