Yash Dayal (RCB): 0.28 Projected WAR/M Pacer Sits Behind Hazlewood and Bhuvneshwar
Yash Dayal projects at 0.28 WAR/M for IPL 2026, driven entirely by bowling WAR/M of 0.27. That number is competitive with several XI bowlers, but the model slots Hazlewood (0.41) and Bhuvneshwar (0.35) ahead as the frontline pace duo. Dayal sits outside the optimal XII.
Across 1171 career bowling balls and 59 matches, the sample is solid. His IPL confidence of 0.78 confirms most data comes from competitive T20 cricket rather than domestic leagues. The model trusts his numbers.
Bowling Profile
His Ecae of 0.04 places him near league average, meaning his economy roughly matches what you would expect given the phases he bowls in. The bowling surplus of 2 is small. In IPL 2025, Dayal bowled 49 overs at 9.2 economy with 13 wickets.
His strongest phase is the middle overs: 7.1 economy with 5 wickets and 35% dots. That is 1.6 runs per over below the 8.7 average. The middle-overs control suggests he could fill the Abhinandan Singh role if needed.
| Phase | Economy | vs Avg | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid (7-15) | 7.1 | +1.6 | 29% |
| PP (1-6) | — | — | — |
| Death (16-20) | — | — | — |
Why He Misses the XI
RCB's pace bowling is covered by Hazlewood (4 overs), Bhuvneshwar (4 overs), and Abhinandan (3 overs). That allocates 11 pace overs from three bowlers. Dayal would need to displace one of these three, and Hazlewood and Bhuvneshwar both project substantially higher WAR/M.
The comparison with Abhinandan is closer. Abhinandan's regressed WAR/M of 0.19 is lower than Dayal's 0.23, but Abhinandan's bowling role fit of 1.80 exceeds Dayal's metrics. The model prefers Abhinandan's elite boundary prevention in the middle overs.
Path to the XI
If Bhuvneshwar's powerplay effectiveness declines or Abhinandan's domestic numbers fail to translate, Dayal is the next pace option. His middle-overs economy of 7.1 makes him a direct candidate for the Abhinandan role (middle-overs pace control). He could also enter if RCB needs a left-arm pace option for matchup variety.
Sample Depth
Across 1171 bowling balls, Dayal has a deeper sample than Abhinandan (826) and approaching Suyash Sharma's 676. His IPL confidence of 0.78 significantly exceeds the domestic-heavy players (0.45). The model trusts Dayal's numbers more than Abhinandan's or Swapnil's.
That confidence gap is a potential argument for starting Dayal over Abhinandan despite the lower bowling role fit. If Abhinandan's domestic numbers do not translate, the higher-confidence option sitting on the bench would be the logical replacement.
What This Means for IPL 2026
Dayal is RCB's primary domestic pace backup. His regressed WAR/M of 0.23 and projected 0.28 both exceed Abhinandan's 0.19 and Romario Shepherd's 0.06, suggesting he could earn XI selection if early results warrant changes. His xImpact of 43 positions him as a reliable rotation option who is one poor performance from a teammate away from starting. The gap between Dayal's projected 0.28 and the XI's weakest link (Shepherd at 0.06) suggests the model already sees him as a stronger individual player than at least one current starter. The difference is squad construction: Shepherd fills a batting-order need that Dayal cannot, which is why individual WAR/M alone does not determine selection. For Dayal, the path to the XI runs through Abhinandan's performance: if the domestic pace allrounder struggles, Dayal is the direct replacement.