LSG's Optimal 12: Pooran's 45 SRae and 4 Overseas in the Top 4 Build the IPL's Most Top-Heavy Lineup
LSG's Optimal 12: Pooran's 45 SRae and 4 Overseas in the Top 4 Build the IPL's Most Top-Heavy Lineup
How we build Optimal XIs: methodology and WAR explainer
LSG rank 7th in the WAR-based Elo model at 1486, their projected WAR of 3.59 disguising the most extreme top-bottom split of any franchise. Lucknow Super Giants have committed fully to a top-heavy structure. All four overseas slots occupy positions 1 through 4: Marsh, Inglis, Pooran, Markram. That leaves Rishabh Pant and Abdul Samad as the only Indian batters before seven bowlers take over. No other franchise in IPL 2026 burns every overseas pick in the top four.
The statistical engine of this lineup is Nicholas Pooran. His SRae of 45 means he produces 45 runs per 100 balls above what the average batter generates in identical phase and bowling-type matchups. At the death against pace, Pooran strikes at 193 from 471 balls. Against spin at the death: 200 from 88 balls. His projected WAR/M of 0.62 leads the squad by a wide margin. Pooran alone accounts for more projected wins than any two LSG bowlers combined.
Below the overseas quartet, the batting depth evaporates. Pant's SRae of -19 is the worst of any batter in this XII, driven by a 119 SR against spin in the middle overs from 371 balls. Abdul Samad collapses to 104 against spin at the death from 69 balls. If opponents flood overs 7 through 15 with quality spin, LSG's Indian middle order stalls completely. The bowling attack, anchored by Mayank Yadav's 6 death economy, must compensate for that fragility every match.
Optimal XII
| # | Player | Role | OS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitchell Marsh | Opener / AR | Yes |
| 2 | Josh Inglis (wk) | Opener | Yes |
| 3 | Nicholas Pooran (wk) | #3 | Yes |
| 4 | Aiden Markram | #4 | Yes |
| 5 | Rishabh Pant (c, wk) | #5 | No |
| 6 | Abdul Samad | #6 | No |
| 7 | Mayank Yadav | Death (pace) | No |
| 8 | Mohammad Shami | New Ball (pace) | No |
| 9 | Digvesh Rathi | Middle (spin) | No |
| 10 | Akash Singh | New Ball (pace) | No |
| 11 | Mohsin Khan | Death (pace) | No |
| 12 | M Siddharth | Middle (spin) | No |
Overseas: 4/4 | Keepers: Josh Inglis, Nicholas Pooran, Rishabh Pant
Position-by-Position Analysis
1. Mitchell Marsh, Opener
Marsh anchors the top of LSG's order as the squad's most complete opener. His powerplay SR of 152 vs pace from 779 balls forms the statistical backbone of his selection, accounting for 45% of his role value. This is not a batter who merely survives the new ball. He attacks it, and the sample is enormous.
In the middle overs, Marsh accelerates further. Against pace: 159 SR from 345 balls. Against spin: 142 SR from 411 balls. That dual-threat profile across bowling types is rare among openers. Most excel against one or the other. Marsh hits above average against everything through the first 15 overs.
His position fit score of 1.72 is the second-highest of any batter in this XII. His batting WAR/M of 0.54 leads the squad among openers, and his projected WAR/M of 0.56 reflects a player the model expects to maintain elite output. The allrounder tag exists in his profile but the model does not project significant bowling contribution at 0.02, so Marsh is selected purely on batting merit.
2. Josh Inglis, Opener
Inglis is a natural No. 3 deployed as opener, a positional compromise forced by LSG's overseas-heavy top order. His best model fit is top order at No. 3, but Pooran locks that slot, so Inglis slides up. The numbers support the stretch.
Against spin in the middle overs, Inglis strikes at 148 from 380 balls, the phase that carries 32% of his role's value. Against pace in the middle: 154 from 376 balls. These are the phases Inglis will bat through after navigating the powerplay, and both numbers sit comfortably above the league average.
At the death, his SR vs pace reaches 174 from 100 balls. The sample is modest but the direction is clear: Inglis maintains output across all three phases. His SRae of 12 confirms above-average scoring relative to phase expectations. His position fit of 1.60 as opener is slightly below Marsh's 1.72, reflecting the positional stretch, but the across-the-board performance numbers more than justify selection.
3. Nicholas Pooran, No. 3
Pooran is the most explosive batter in this XII and one of the most destructive middle-order players in the IPL. His SRae of 45 means he scores 45 runs per 100 balls above what the average batter produces in the same phase and bowling-type matchups. That is generational output.
The death-overs profile is where Pooran separates from every other batter in this squad. Against pace at the death: 193 SR from 471 balls. Against spin at the death: 200 SR from 88 balls. He does not care what you bowl or when you bowl it. 471 balls against pace at the death is a colossal dataset that no amount of regression can pull back to average.
Through the middle overs, Pooran maintains the assault. Against spin from overs 7 to 15: 147 SR from 834 balls, carrying 31% of his role value. 834 balls is the largest single-phase sample of any batter in this XII. His xImpact of 87 is the highest in the squad, and his projected WAR/M of 0.62 reflects a player in his absolute prime. The position fit score of 1.75 is the highest of any batter in the XII, confirming No. 3 as the optimal slot.
4. Aiden Markram, No. 4
Markram is the new addition that pushes LSG to a four-overseas top order. His death-overs hitting anchors the selection. Against pace at the death: 184 SR from 274 balls. Against spin at the death: 195 SR from 99 balls. Those numbers profile him as a dual-threat death-overs batter who can handle both bowling types.
In the middle overs against pace, Markram matches the position average at 142 SR. That carries 25% of his No. 4 role's value and represents adequate rather than dominant production. He will not accelerate through overs 7 to 15 the way Pooran does above him, but he will not decelerate either.
His SRae of -1 is essentially neutral, meaning Markram produces almost exactly what the average batter would in his phase matchups. His position fit score of 1.11 is the second-lowest among the batters in this XII, and his regressed WAR/M of 0.32 is solid without being spectacular. The fourth overseas slot on Markram is a bet on his death-overs production and the absence of a domestic alternative who can fill No. 4 without exposing the spin vulnerability that Pant and Samad share.
5. Rishabh Pant, No. 5 (Captain, Keeper)
Pant is the captain, the primary keeper, and the most complicated batting selection in LSG's lineup. His case rests on a single elite matchup. Against pace at the death, Pant strikes at 207 from 163 balls. That number is extraordinary. When pace bowlers operate in overs 16 through 20, Pant is a genuine game-changer.
Everything else is a problem. Against spin in the middle overs, Pant strikes at just 119 from 371 balls, a phase that accounts for 27% of his No. 5 role's value. Across 371 balls, his inability to rotate strike against spin through overs 7 to 15 is a structural limitation that opposition captains will exploit relentlessly. Against pace in the middle, he recovers to 148 from 304 balls, carrying 23% of his role value.
His SRae of -19 is the worst of any batter in this XII. His position fit score of 1.09 is the lowest of any batter in the Optimal. His xImpact of 57 reflects a batter whose extraordinary death-overs ceiling is dragged down by a below-average middle-overs floor. LSG would extract more value from Pant at No. 6 or No. 7, where he faces fewer spin-heavy middle overs and more pace-heavy death overs. As captain, he commands No. 5 by seniority rather than statistical optimality.
6. Abdul Samad, No. 6
Abdul Samad is a pace-hitting specialist with a glaring vulnerability to spin. Against pace at the death: 193 SR from 189 balls, accounting for 44% of his role value. That matchup makes him a genuine finisher when quick bowlers operate in overs 16 through 20.
The spin numbers tell the opposite story. Against spin at the death: 104 SR from 69 balls. Against spin in the middle overs: 108 SR from 125 balls. The gap between his pace-hitting (193) and spin-hitting (104) at the death is 89 SR points, one of the widest splits among any starting batter in the IPL.
His best positional fit is actually No. 7 (Finisher), not No. 6. The model pushes him up because LSG simply has no other Indian middle-order batter to fill the gap. With a position fit score of 1.26 and a regressed WAR/M of 0.16, Samad is a stopgap No. 6 propped up by one elite matchup and dragged down by two poor ones.
Bowling Attack
Powerplay: New-Ball Pairing
Mohammad Shami leads the new-ball attack as LSG's PP control specialist. His powerplay dot rate of 53% is elite, 7 percentage points above the league average. His PP economy of 8 sits below the league mean. Across 65% of his career deliveries bowled in the powerplay, Shami is a pure PP specialist who builds pressure through dots and swing movement.
His overall dot rate of 46% confirms the containment extends beyond the new ball. His bowl fit score of 1.65 is the highest among all bowlers in the XII for the new-ball role, and his allocation of 2 PP overs plus 1 middle over concentrates his impact where he is most effective. His death score of 0.75 makes clear he should not bowl in overs 16 through 20.
Akash Singh pairs as the second new-ball option. His PP dot rate of 48% is above average, with 69% of his career deliveries bowled in the powerplay confirming the PP-specialist profile. His PP boundary rate of 25% is the concern, 3 percentage points above average. He concedes more boundaries than Shami but compensates with consistent dot-ball pressure.
His bowl fit score of 0.95 is below Shami's 1.65, and his middle and death scores of 0.21 and 0.70 respectively confirm he should not bowl outside the powerplay. His allocation is 2 PP overs plus 1 middle over. The Shami-Akash Singh pairing gives LSG a functional new-ball attack with clear hierarchy.
Middle-Overs Spine
Digvesh Rathi replaces Wanindu Hasaranga as LSG's primary middle-overs spinner. His middle economy of 8 sits below the league average. His middle-overs boundary rate of 14% is elite, 2 percentage points below the league average, making him one of the more difficult spinners to hit for boundaries through overs 7 to 15.
With 52% of his deliveries bowled in the middle overs, Rathi profiles as a specialist overs 7 through 15 bowler. His bowl fit score of 1.25 for the middle role is the highest spin bowling score in the squad, and his overall boundary rate of 16% confirms the containing dimension extends across all phases. His bowling WAR/M of 0.66 is the highest raw bowling component in the squad, though regression pulls his overall WAR/M to 0.31. His allocation of 4 middle overs is the largest single-phase commitment of any bowler in this XII.
Death Bowling
Mayank Yadav is the crown jewel of this bowling attack and the single most statistically dominant death bowler in the data. His death economy of 6 is 4 runs per over better than the league average of 10. That is not a small edge. It is a chasm.
His death dot rate of 49% means he dots nearly half his deliveries in overs 16 through 20, a phase where most bowlers hemorrhage boundaries. The average death bowler concedes a run-scoring delivery on roughly 2 of every 3 balls. Mayank concedes on 1 of every 2. At express pace consistently above 150 kph, he reduces reaction times to the point where batters cannot execute their shots.
His overall dot rate of 46% confirms the pressure extends beyond the death. His death bowl fit of 1.51 is the highest of any bowler in the XII for the death role. His allocation is 1 middle over plus 3 death overs, concentrating his impact where the gap between his output and the league average is widest. The caveat is workload: with only 20% of career balls bowled at the death, the sample is smaller than Shami's PP sample. But the signal is so extreme that even heavy regression cannot normalize these numbers.
Mohsin Khan provides the second death option alongside Mayank. His overall dot rate of 45% is elite, 8 percentage points above the league average. His death dot rate of 34% is above average, providing a functional secondary containment option. His left-arm angle creates natural variation alongside Mayank's right-arm express pace.
Mohsin's bowl fit score for the death role of 1.07 is modest but adequate. His new-ball score of 1.64 is actually his strongest phase, meaning LSG retain flexibility to shift him to the powerplay if match situations demand it. His allocation of 1 PP over plus 2 death overs reflects the primary death assignment with a secondary PP contribution. The concern is his death six rate of 12%, which sits well above the league average of 9%. He contains through dots but concedes maximums at a rate that could prove expensive on flat pitches.
Spin Depth: M Siddharth (12th Man)
M Siddharth slots as the 12th man, providing left-arm spin backup. His middle dot rate of 22% is well below average, and his middle economy of 10 sits above the league mean. His bowl fit scores of 0.95 (new ball), 0.54 (middle), and 0.66 (death) are modest across all phases.
His bowling WAR/M of 0.43 is high in raw terms, but this is inflated by limited exposure and has been regressed to 0.21 overall WAR/M. His projected WAR/M of 0.34 reflects some upside if he earns more overs. He provides cover if pitch conditions demand a second spinner alongside Rathi, giving LSG the option to go spin-heavy through the middle on turning surfaces.
Alternatives Considered
Aiden Markram represents the most significant selection change from earlier projections. His inclusion at No. 4 pushes Pant to No. 5 and commits all four overseas slots to the batting lineup. The alternative was retaining a configuration with an overseas bowler (Hasaranga) and keeping a domestic middle-order option. The model prefers Markram's death-overs hitting (SR of 184 vs pace, 195 vs spin) over the bowling value Hasaranga provided.
Digvesh Rathi earned the primary middle-overs spin role over M Siddharth based on his middle economy of 8 and middle boundary rate of 14%. The gap in bowl fit scores (1.25 vs 0.54 for the middle role) made this selection straightforward.
Prince Yadav (leg-spin) was considered for the 12th man role over M Siddharth. His middle-overs boundary rate of 20% and middle economy of 9 are both below average. His bowl fit scores (new ball 0.65, middle 0.55, death 0.33) are lower across every phase than Siddharth's alternatives. The wrist-spin variation differs from Siddharth's left-arm orthodox, but the numbers do not support the selection.
The squad's Indian middle-order options beyond Pant and Abdul Samad remain thin. LSG's auction strategy prioritized batting firepower through overseas picks and bowling depth through domestic seamers. That creates ceiling through the top four and variety in the bowling attack, but imposes a hard floor when the overseas batters fail and Pant faces spin through the middle overs.
Methodology: Selections are based on ball-by-ball data from 1,164 IPL matches, 4,996 T20Is, and 691 SMAT matches via Cricsheet. Player evaluation uses phase-adjusted strike rates, economy rates, and boundary percentages weighted by format (IPL 1.0, T20I 0.5, SMAT 0.3) and recency (most recent season 3x, prior 2x, two back 1x, older 0.5x). Full WAR methodology explainer.